Global warming for me is a personal affair. It is March 5. The spring equinox is less than two weeks away. The sun is going down these days about 5:15, so despite the cold, people’s moods are happier with increased sunshine.
I write from deep in the country. It will be -17C tonight, or about zero Fahrenheit. I have two wood stoves on the go, which are gradually warming my modest country house. As the stoves blaze, I think of all the wood I cut, split, stack, re-stack and take in every evening and day to fill the wood bins.
If you had to fill your lamps with oil, and clean the wicks every day, you would understand better your consumption of energy. Same with drawing water from the well. As Matt Ridley reminds us in his brilliant book The Rational Optimist, each of us has more servants working for him than Louis XIV in his splendor at Versailles. They are measured in kilowatts, and gallons of fuel. They draw our water and heat our baths, and bring the water up from the basement, and take it away again when we are finished. They clean our dishes. They wash and dry our clothes. The average woman in the 19th century could not have run her household without at least one servant girl. We have hundreds of servants, and they do not have to be fed more than a few hundred bucks a month.
My take-away from Ridley’s book is this: servitude has been eliminated because we are burning fossil and nuclear fuels. It is that simple. The progress of the past several centuries is purely a matter of having more energy at our disposal. I think the increased prosperity we have found of late in the past three centuries has had enormous beneficial effects everywhere, in all human relationships.
An idea that intrigues me is the relationship of increasing prosperity, the subject of Matt Ridley’s book, with another large scale phenomenon occurring almost simultaneously with the rise of prosperity, the reduction of violence.
As so ably discussed by Steven Pinker in The Better Angels of our Nature, violence has been observed to decline in all human relationships, nearly everywhere. Interpersonal, intercommunal, interstate, intertribal, and interfamilial violence has declined dramatically since the 1500s. The evidence shows that, despite what Pinker calls the hemoclysms of World Wars one and Two, the trend in the reduction of violence is observed everywhere (except in the Islamic world). In short, our manners are gentling.
The basic thesis of Pinker, freely credited to Norbert Elias, is that once political authority became established, the nobles were gradually prohibited from waging war upon each other. Manners at court, where the nobles dined with the king, spread out to manners in the rest of society. The traders who dealt with the nobility learned to say please and thank you and not spit into the soup, and above all, to refrain from slaying one another on a whim. Eventually the milk-maid and the tanner were observed to say please and thank you, not just to their social betters, but to each other. The thrust of Pinker’s book is that the gradual, centuries-long gentling of human manners is reaching an occasionally absurd end-point, but that the rights revolutions are a result of much greater empathy being nourished in modern society for former underdogs.
For me, there are three or four books that set the boundaries of debate. Ridley’s The Rational Optimist and Pinker’s The Better Angels of our Nature are two of them. They establish their factual case so thoroughly that I am just not willing to pay attention to those who dispute their conclusions unless the contrarians have done as much homework as the people they contend with.
In a nutshell:
Matt Ridley: Prosperity is actually increasing because we are burning more fossil fuels.
Steven Pinker: Violence of all kinds is decreasing because we established adequate political authority that began the suppression of violence among all social classes some centuries ago. The gentling of manners continues once this virtuous cycle had been established, and its range has expanded from less murder to fewer deaths in war, proportionately to population, in every century since the 1600s.
Here are a few more books of the same ilk:
Charles Murray and Richard Herrnstein’s The Bell Curve: Intelligence is largely hereditary and is the most important factor in personal success and failure. Intelligence differs among people of the same race, and between races. This is as proven a fact as anything is social science.
Charles Murray Human Accomplishment: Murray argues on the basis of statitical methods that most of human progress in science and the arts was accomplished by an incredibly small number of white men, concentrated in various times first in northern Italy, later in the Low Countries and Britain. It is the complete rebuttal to the obloquy of “dead white males” from the humanities departments. In short, by way of example, he argues that Michael Faraday contributed more to science than the entirety of Islamic or Indian civilizations. It is a stake driven into the heart of political correctness, and a vital education in the truth.
Nicholas Wade, Before the Dawn: Everything we know now about how a small band of people left Africa 30,000 years ago and became every other race on the planet by colonizing it in a process of adaptation to new climatic challenges.
Time to load more logs into the stoves.