Empty Planet: the shock of global population decline

This is a useful introduction to the next 70 years. The authors Darrell Bricker and John Ibbotson trace the debates about total human population, they side for good reasons with the view that the media UN demographic projections are too high, and they speculate on some of the effects that decreasing population will have on economic growth (bad), global warming (good) , and the extinction of small cultures (ongoing).

The argument is simple: women are becoming less fertile – having fewer babies – under the influence of higher education, moving to cities, greater aspirations, and the decline of social control of their reproductivity. This decline is occurring nearly everywhere, including in non-industrial societies, advanced industrial societies, and regardless of whether the people in question are Catholic, Protestant, Buddhist, secular, or Islamic. The fertility decline is occurring with especial speed in Islamic societies, and formerly strongly Catholic ones.

This is counter to what you have been taught in university back in the days of the Club of Rome report (1972) and in the doomist press. Births are below replacement rate (2.1 per woman) in most parts of the world. Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Mali are exceptions, though birth rates will fall there shortly, too. The point of demographics is that it correctly predicts the shape of societies for decades to come precisely because people tend to live by statistically valid durations of time. Lifespans are calculable.

Overall, the global average length of life has doubled to 70 years since 1900.

The UN predicts in its medium growth scenario a global population in 2100 (roughly 80 years away) at 11.2 billion, at which point it holds stable and then starts to shrinks. The low variant of UN projections say that the world population will peak at 8.2 billion around 2050 and decline to 7 billion, where we are now, by 2100.

A good portion of the argument of Bricker and Ibbotson is that the low variant will prove to be the correct one. I encourage you to read the argument.

The authors indulge themselves in later chapters with some attacks on nativism and Trump’s policies, which express Toronto-centric Upper Canadian snobbery and fail to address that the issue for the US is illegal immigration. Legal immigration to the United States continues to be high and is socially approved of, at about 1.1 million a year. Undocumented immigration has amounted over the years to more than 10.5 million US residents, and this is what excites the antipathy of the US citizenry.

They do venture to observe that declining world population, coupled with roughly stable energy use per person, will alleviate the global warming crisis (as they would see it). “Urbanization, innovation, and depopulation might be the best solution to halting the march of climate change.” (p.231)

However, the chief merit of this book is to draw attention to the shape of the next 80 years, as population rises until mid-century and begins to drop, in some cases precipitously, by 2100.

The same material is discussed from a deeply religious (meaningful) viewpoint in David Goldman’s How Civilizations Die (and Why Islam is Dying too). Both books start with UN statistics on population, but the resemblance ends there. Goldman links fertility, past and future, to the tenacity to which people hold to their religious creeds. This will be an unwelcome thought to the purely secular minds of Ibbotson and Bricker, and many other reasonable people. Yet of the subject of the world’s population interests you, Goldman’s interpretation of the facts evokes much deeper issues than urbanization and female empowerment. Says Goldman:

“Two cultures are contending at the family level throughout the world: secular modernity and renewed faith. Secular families have few children and religious families have many. That means that in each generation, religious families will increase in number and secular families will diminish” (at p 197)

Thus, says Goldman, the path out of secular population decline will necessarily require a change of views regarding family, women’s roles, fatherhood, and the really important issues of life. These are what I mean by the word “religion”. I do not see anything like this happening soon, and maybe it will never happen. By 2050, in a world that is shrinking in population, radical alternatives to population decline may seem more achievable and desirable. Or maybe we will have been assimilated by the Borg by then.

US Marines train for invasion of Canada

Published reports show that the US military is shifting its training from desert climates to frosty ones. Though they pretend that the concern is with Korea and Russia, we all know that the closest target of uncertain loyalty is Trudeau’s Ottawa. It is a balmy -2C here today, going down to -14 tonight. Conditions will be ideal next week for winter training at -18C in the Gatineaus.

The snow is deep, the conditions cold, and the commanding view over Ottawa creates a good place to plant artillery. I have a few spots in mind.

Two strikes

With the resignations today of Gerald Butts and Katie Telford, the principal secretary and the chief of staff to the Prime Minister, the regime has taken a serious hit. Two torpedoes: one to the aft engine room, and the second to starboard chains. The ship is listing and damage control parties are putting out fires. The Principal Secretary and the Chief of Staff are the heart and soul of Justin’s regime. He will have to take his directions from new people as of tomorrow.

I predicted that Aztec heart sacrifice would be required to appease the wrath of Jody Wilson-Raybould and the many Canadians who think that the course of justice was turned by inappropriate political pressure from the PMO, viz the aforementioned Butts and Telford.

Even so we cannot fail to rejoice in the loss to the regime to the Greenie in Chief, the global warming catastrophist who advised the Prime Minister ten to twenty times a day for these past many years.

Read his resignation letter:

” I also need to say this (and I know it’s a non sequitur). Our kids and grandkids will judge us on one issue above all others. That issue is climate change. I hope the response to it becomes the collective, non-partisan, urgent effort that science clearly says is required. I hope that happens soon.”

No, because the science has been perverted, the data massacred, the scales of justice weighed heavily by corrupt government research, and the evidence of too many heresy trials has invalidated the global warming concern nearly completely among reasonably informed minds. This concern may be legitimately and scientifically founded, but the scare has been marketed like cholesterol in the 1960s, only this time the issue is not the switch from butter to canola oil but energy technologies that work to ones that were abandoned for sound reasons. I digress.

The loss of Butts may enable the Prime Minister to escape the huge battle forming with the provinces about carbon taxes.

In regard to the Wilson-Raybould issue, listen to the man exclaim:

“Any accusation that I or the staff put pressure on the Attorney General is simply not true. “

Well, if he did not put pressure on Wilson-Raybould, why is he resigning?

Jody, stay silent

Dear Mrs. Wilson-Raybould,

You do not have to do a thing to embarrass the federal Liberal government. They have silenced you because you are constrained by solicitor-client privilege. You cannot disclose the degree to which you were pressured not to go after SNC-Lavalin by way of criminal prosecution. You have been prevented from testifying before a parliamentary committee by the votes of its Liberal majority. So there you are: silenced.

Your power position will never be better. As soon as you break your silence, you will subject to questions about your judgment in the actual issue: ought SNC-Lavalin be prosecuted criminally? So do not be in any rush to speak to that issue. Be the woman righteously indignant. Be the woman offended by louts.

Let Trudeau and his evil advisor Gerald Butts stew in their own juices. It is comical to watch Justin Trudeau be unable to put a foot right in this affair. He or his minions slag you, then relents. He says you are happy in the cabinet, then you resign from it. And he fears letting you speak, so he maintains solicitor-client privilege. When this grenade finally goes off at your first press conference, it will wreck Trudeau’s posturing as a feminist. It may be the ruin of his government. It certainly puts the lie to his claims to sunny ways and to a special understanding of natives and native issues.

Think about the delicious irony. The opportunity to shuffle you out of the cabinet came as a result of Scott Brison’s resignation. You were moved to Veteran’s Affairs because Scott Brison, the minister who got the government involved in the disgraceful prosecution of Vice Admiral Norman for leaking cabinet secrets, left politics for business. Thus one scandal begot another.

As to the Prime Minister’s evil advisor Gerald Butts, it is time for Trudeau to turn on his closest political friend and can him. Trudeau will not get around this scandal without human sacrifice, and while I would gladly see an Aztec heart sacrifice for the wrecker of Alberta’s economy, I will have to be satisfied with Butts seeking “to spend more time with his family.” If that is a relevant term for one whose species is uncertain to replicate by sexual reproduction.

The longer you stay silent, Jody, the more the pressure builds. The longer you look like the offended party, the more Trudeau must suffer. Lord, he richly deserves this come-uppance. Pride goeth before a fall.

Yours very truly,

Dalwhinnie

Gerald Butts


Jody Wilson-Raybould

The Democrats Go Bonkers

The Ancient Greeks had it all figured out when they said… “Whom the gods wish to destroy, they first make mad.” Nothing has changed since then.

In the US, the rising stars of Bananarama Party include the always-entertaining woman, Ms Alesandrio Occasional-Cortex. The Democrats have been blessed, or rather the Republicans have been, with the most colossally stupid woman ever to attempt to simulate a coherent human, male, female, or other.

The Green New Deal [here] released recently, is the brain-child of every fantasizing leftist who has had one too many hits of the bong pipe in the college dorm. Upon examination, the GND looks like the workings of a Deep-Republican mole planting a limpet mine loaded with absurdity and ridicule under the rotting hull of the Democrat Party. S-h-u-r-r-e-l-y, you say, they can’t be serious?

The preamble contains all the usual blather and outright lies of the left:

Whereas….(1) human activity is the dominant cause of observed
climate change over the past century;
(2) a changing climate is causing sea levels to rise
and an increase in wildfires, severe storms, droughts, and
other extreme weather events that threaten human life,
healthy communities, and critical infrastructure;

…blah, blah, and,

global warming at or above 2 degrees Celsius beyond preindustrialized levels will cause—
(A) mass migration from the regions most affected by climate change;
(B) more than $500,000,000,000 in lost annual economic output in the United States by the year
2100;
(C) wildfires that, by 2050, will annually burn at least twice as much forest area in the western
United States than was typically burned by wildfires in the years preceding 2019;
(D) a loss of more than 99 percent of all coral reefs on Earth;
(E) more than 350,000,000 more people to be exposed globally to deadly heat stress by 2050; and…

…lest you think I am kidding you, read the whole thing.
Be it resolved:

…(1) it is the duty of the Federal Government to
create a Green New Deal—
(A) to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas
emissions through a fair and just transition for
all communities and workers;
(B) to create millions of good, high-wage
jobs and ensure prosperity and economic security for all people of the United States;
(C) to invest in the infrastructure and industry of the United States to sustainably meet the challenges of the 21st century;
(D) to secure for all people of the United States for generations to come—
(i) clean air and water;
(ii) climate and community resiliency;
(iii) healthy food;
(iv) access to nature; and
(v) a sustainable environment; and
(E) to promote justice and equity by stopping current, preventing future, and repairing historic oppression of indigenous communities, communities of color, migrant communities,…

Oh, that’s enough of this drivel. They forgot free unicorns for the kids and pixie dust for energy production.

Apparently, Democrat legislation can consist solely of fatuous, handwaving wishful thinking with no basis in fact and absolutely no credibility in science or engineering. This is La-La land, pure and simple. This is what happens when a 29-year old woman with the intelligence of a three-year old is in control of the Democrats and is worshipped by the media journalists, who, to give credit where credit is due, are at least as ignorant as Ms Occasional-Cortex.

To understand why this Green New Fraud is bunkum from top to bottom, and why the politicians supporting it are frauds, just read “Sustainable Energy—-Without the Hot Air” [Hot Air]by Cambridge physicist David MacKay. Here, he translates into easily understandable terms (kilowatt-hours of energy—what you see on your electricity bill) how much “sustainable” energy would be required—even if it could be produced—to power industry, homes, and the transportation system. It’s a book that every greenie and eco-babbler should read—if they can.

The Green Fraud will not happen. It cannot happen. But what can happen is that our countries and industries and standards of living can be destroyed by idiotic politicians stealing our money through taxes and wasting it on absurd schemes based on their fantastical delusions.

We need to build more nuclear power, upgrade the electricity grid in a major way, invest in natural gas, and vote out these morons before they destroy modern society.

Rebel Yell

A fascinating romp through big ideas

Scott Adams interviews Naval Ravikant, genius and investor. Worth your time, else I would not post it.

“The real universal basic income is cannabis and video games” – Naval Ravikant

Both are convinced we live in a simulation. Both are convinced that religion and mathematics are predicated on belief – that God and mathematical laws rest on axioms. God is the biggest axiom. You choose, that’s all. And by definition, both of them believe what they do without being able to prove it.

Our Colleges of Unreason

The modern world has a strange way of acting out in reality what our forebears took for absurdity and satire.

Take 1984 for instance. No doubt Orwell thought his dark foreboding vision of a communist future was just that—a vision. However, as time marches on, or slouches on, we approach ever more closely the totalitarian nightmare of IngSoc. Our rights and liberties are daily eroded and outright stolen by unscrupulous politicians, bureaucrats, and the endless special interest groups that crawl all over them like lice.

Another example is the fascinating novel “Erewhon” written in 1871 by Samuel Butler. Over seventy years before Orwell, Butler produced his story of a trip to an imaginary land which, he thought, would show through satire some of the most absurd behaviors and frivolities of society. In one part of the travels of our hero through Erewhon, he is at a supper party given by a Mr Thims, where he met some professors from the Erewhonian “universities”—the Colleges of Unreason.

One, a Professor of Worldly Wisdom, expanded on the malicious nature of genius, which, he held, was a great offense against Nature. His fame lay in his extensive work in suppressing any form of originality in students.

…“It is not our business,” he said, “to help students to think for themselves. Surely this is the very last thing which one who wishes them well should encourage them to do. Our duty is to ensure that they shall think as we do, or at any rate, as we hold it expedient to say we do.” In some respects, however, he was thought to hold somewhat radical opinions, for he was President of the Society for the Suppression of Useless Knowledge, and for the Completer Obliteration of the Past.

And as our hero remarks in the story,

…And really it is hard to see how the Erewhonian theory differs from our own, for the word “idiot” only means a person who forms his opinions for himself.

What a perfect description of the real-world “universities” of today! Not a word need be changed. Every student of quack sociology, gender-bender studies, or trans-lesbian armpit hair studies would subscribe to that, albeit expressed in the more turgid meanderings of post-modernist mumbo-jumbo.

Butler’s fantasies of the Colleges of Unreason have come to pass in actuality, now. It is possible, in some of our institutions of Higher Ignorance, to be disciplined by not subscribing to dogmas such as men can become women, which is biologically impossible.

Up next, Newton’s Laws of Motion will be classed as “hate” as they were formulated by a white man (as was almost all modern, and ancient, science).

Little did Samuel Butler know, that his biting satire would be turned into a demented reality by the progressives of today.

Rebel Yell