Barrel Strength

One of the byproducts of a euphoria is that everything is perceived as good news. A good example is the recent news coverage of Obama, in particular these two news items.

Jackson’s `Crude’ Remarks May Give Boost to Obama

Ironically, success of the surge in Iraq is helping Obama

Is there anything that won’t help Obama?

h/t Rumproast

Lady Lynn Forester de Rothschild Says Obama is “Elitist”

On CNN this HillRaiser stated “This is a hard decision for me personally because, frankly, I don’t like him. I feel like he is an elitist. I feel like he has not given me reason to trust him.”

Direct link to video on Youtube

The socialist economist John Galbraith, in his 1967 book “The New Industrial State“, argued that large American corporation, such as General Motors, are essentially immune from market forces because they can use advertising to create additional demand. Nobody should ever confuse leftist economics with reality, as we have seen GM’s market share drop precipitiously, but that hasn’t stopped platitudes raining down on him.

Similar events could be unfolding in the political arena, where Obama is poised to raise $500 million. Since this fund raising projection was published on June 19, 2008, the events have unfolded which seem to indicated that Democrats are playing with Galbraith’s playbook. Eleanour Clift describes this 50-state strategy as follows:

Let’s do the math. If Obama holds all the Kerry states, he’s at 252. Add Iowa for 259. Add a win in Virginia or North Carolina, “and it’s game, set, match,” says Plouffe. Or add Colorado and New Mexico, Republican states where Obama now leads, to reach 270. The campaign last week put up a biographical ad in 18 states, including Alaska and Montana, historically Republican states. It looked like Obama was just trying to taunt McCain, lure him into spending money in states where he shouldn’t. But Plouffe insists “there’s not a head fake in the bunch.” Alaska’s octogenarian Sen. Ted Stephens, under investigation for corruption and the sponsor of the infamous “bridge to nowhere,” is in a tight race for reelection. Montana, which Bill Clinton won in ‘92, has a Democratic governor and senator.

And Plouffe is just getting started. There’s Georgia, a state that hasn’t gone Democratic since 1976, but the presence of former Georgia Rep. Bob Barr, who’s running for a third party—Libertarian—could drain 2 to 4 percent from McCain and put the state within reach for Obama. “Indiana is another place where I would ask you to reorder your thinking,” Plouffe said with clinical certainty, adding it to his list of states “behaving” more Democratic. “Our goal is to adjust the electorate more to our liking,” he said, explaining how registering a record number of African-Americans and young people under 40 could swell Democratic turnout and swing Republican-leaning states to Obama.

It looks as if Clift is expecting Obama to win 50 states in the upcoming Presidential election with the help of advertising strategy as described by Galbraith. Your correspondent is certainly glad that this will leave 7 states for McCain and the election won’t be a disaster for him, like 1984 was for Mondale, who only carried one state and the District of Columbia.

From NRO:

So, the recent news out of the Obama camp is that they’re planning a huge rally with thousands of people in a stadium, want to create a mandatory youth corps for national service, and are thinking about a big dramatic speech in Berlin.

It’s like they’re trying to sell copies of Jonah’s book or something.

Perhaps it is the something.

Muammar “Brotherly Leader and Guide of the Revolution” al-Gaddafi, gives a ringing endorsement to Obama’s presidential bid.

“There are elections in America now. Along came a black citizen of Kenyan African origins, a Muslim, who had studied in an Islamic school in Indonesia. His name is Obama.

All the people in the Arab and Islamic world and in Africa applauded this man. They welcomed him and prayed for him and for his success, and they may have even been involved in legitimate contribution campaigns to enable him to win the American presidency….

We are still hoping that this black man will take pride in his African and Islamic identity, and in his faith, and that [he will know] that he has rights in America, and that he will change America from evil to good, and that America will establish relations that will serve it well with other peoples, especially the Arabs.”

This endorsement preceded endorsements from Kim Jong-Il and Fidel Castro.

Obama told a news conference today that “… I think there is an executive order out on Osama bin Laden’s head and if I’m president, and we have the opportunity to capture him, we may not be able to capture him alive… What would be important would be for us to do it in a way that allows the entire world to understand the murderous acts that he’s engaged in and not to make him into a martyr, and to assure that the United States government is abiding by basic conventions that would strengthen our hand in the broader battle against terrorism,”

He might want to recall the troubles that bedeviled previous attempts to capture bin Laden, during the Clinton administration, with the help of the full force of the US law. On MSNBC’s “Hardball with Chris Matthews”, Michael Scheuer, a former CIA terrorism analyst shared the following:

“When we were going to capture Osama bin Laden, for example, the lawyers were more concerned with bin Laden‘s safety and his comfort than they were with the officers charged with capturing him. We had to build an ergonomically designed chair to put him in, special comfort in terms of how he was shackled into the chair. They even worried about what kind of tape to gag him with so it wouldn‘t irritate his beard.”

One hopes that a better tape has been manufactured and better seating is available since the last attempt.

Rocco DiPippo in an excellent article bares the Left. A must read.

Obama’s latest campaign statements are of acute interest where he states:

“Barack Obama is warning supporters that the general election fight between him and John McCain may get ugly, but the Illinois senator is vowing not to back down.‘If they bring a knife to the fight, we bring a gun,’ Obama said at a fundraiser in Philadelphia Friday, according to pool reports.”

Have the latest polling shown that he is in trouble in the inner cities, which has that led him to cater to his base and issue statements that will ingratiate him to them?  He is certainly speaking their language and this is the kind of talk that they can personally relate to.

h/t Gateway Pundit

In 2004 Obama ruled out running on a national ticket in 2008 because he lacked experience.

Direct link to video on Youtube

So what changed?

Update, June 12, 2008

h/t Obama’s Gaffes

Jimmy Carter on Obama in 2007: “I just don’t think he has got yet the proven substance or experience to be the President.”

Direct link to video on Youtube

The modern era in the US federal energy policy began in 1973 with OPEC oil embargo. Other than blaming, in no particular order, oil companies, speculators or OPEC, where does US stand with the implementation of the energy policy over a protracted period?

All your correspondent can see is restriction on drilling in places such as Alaska and Louisiana, steps to sue OPEC and increased taxes on oil companies. How this leads to increase in the supply of oil is a mystery. Of course there is also the solution proposed in the video below by Congresswoman Maxine Waters (D-CA), who was named in 2005 and 2006 as one of the “most corrupt” members of congress by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, to nationalize the oil companies.

Direct link to video on Youtube

Given the bipartisan consensus that a energy policy is required, it is disconcerting that nothing has happened over an extended period. With all the roadblocks and intransigence for the energy policy, one has to ask what hope is there for formulating a broadly accepted consensus for the War on Terror? Bush is derided as a lone wolf but what were and are the options?

Those who fondly recall and point to the bipartisan consensus during the Cold War might want to recall the following statement by Dukakis’ running mate, Congressman Lloyd Bentsen, that shows how different the Democrats were back then: “I propose the president of the United States advise the commander of the North Korean troops to withdraw his forces beyond the 38th parallel within one week or use that week to evacuate civilians from a specified list of North Korean cities that will be subjected to atomic attack by the United States Air Force.”

One of the primary factors inhibiting McCain’s campaign is the issue of age. The betting markets are actively reflecting this concern. On intrade.com the “Barack Obama to win 2008 Presidential Election” contract is trading for 61.3 and “John McCain to win 2008 Presidential Election” contract is trading for 34.8. These contracts will go to 0 in case of a loss and 100 in case of a win.

Given that the Obama contract is trading at 61.3, the corresponding McCain contract should be trading at 38.7, i.e 100-61.3, if contracts are fairly priced. The fact that the McCain contract is trading under the defined “fair price”, and has done so consistently since Obama essentially clinched the nomination, is a reflection of health concerns in the election betting market. The market is pricing in 3.9pts, i.e. 38.7-34.8, as the McCain health risk premium or it might be a case of Obama benefiting from the “Audacity of Vacuity“. It will be interesting to watch how this risk premium varies and if it diminishes completely.

Kate informs us that the Messiah, aka Obama, has expanded his skill-set and it now includes raising the dead. It once again highlights what your correspondent has previously thought about his oratory skills.

As soon as the Teleprompter King™ deviates from a prepared text, he is in trouble. The fatal phrase that he uttered, “and I see many of them in the audience here today”, seems to be an idle ad lib on his part when one examines the corresponding video. When one hears him being interviewed, it is surprising to hear the umms and ahhs in his response. Your correspondent is old enough to recall that when Ted Kennedy’s presidential campaign began to falter, the newspaper started including the verbal annoyances in the text as a signal that it was time to stick a fork in the pig. Will the Messiah’s campaign follow a similar path?

May 30, 2008
Update: The WSJ Opinion column agrees:

As smart and credentialed as he is, Sen. Obama is often an indifferent speaker without a teleprompter.

We were told by the MSM that Obama drew a record crowd of 75,000 for political rally in Oregon on May 18th. Even Obama was impressed and the great orator began his speech with “Wow! Wow! Wow”. Even your jaded correspondent was suitably impressed. Alas the truth is something else.

The referenced post states that “Unmentioned in national reporting was the fact that Obama was preceded by a rare, 45-minute free concert by actual rock stars The Decemberists. The Portland-based band has drawn rave reviews from Rolling Stone magazine, which gave their 2005 album Picaresque four and a half stars (out of five), and another four and a half stars for 2007’s The Crane Wife.” The report goes on to state that “They even closed out with a sing-along entitled “Sons & Daughters”, which had the masses joining the band to declare “Here all the bombs fade away…”

Well that certainly explains the size of the crowd.

Read this. I mean it. It is too long, yes. It uses the word “folks” too often. But swallow your conservative bile and read it. If you cannot stand to read it, skim it. But understand the message Mrs. Obama and her husband are putting out. This is what conservatives are up against in the United States this year. John McCain must come up with a compelling alternative vision or else the Democrats will carry the day. Mrs. Obama expresses in the clearest possible terms the emotional bargain the Obama campaign seeks to make with the American people. The point is to understand what the deal is, between the governed and the future government. Mrs. Michelle Obama points the way.

Hillary Rodham Clinton’s refusal to bow out of the nomination leads to an analysis by International Herald Tribune, which will get prominent coverage given that it was posted on Drudge Report today, as to how she might secure the nomination. The article suggests the following path to nomination.

First, Clinton must win the Indiana primary … and she must run strongly enough in North Carolina… Then she must win in a state … like Oregon or Montana.

[Second, the] Clinton campaign must also persuade the Democratic National Committee to seat at least some of the delegates she won in the disputed votes in Michigan and Florida. It must also persuade superdelegates to include the popular votes cast in Florida, and maybe in Michigan, in calculating the overall tally.

The rest of the article dwells on the superdelegates and how their support must shift to Clinton. A Salon article takes a different tack altogether if the fight goes all the way to the convention.

And at that point, it would not only be the superdelegates who were in play. A little-known loophole in Democratic Party rules potentially frees up every delegate — even those selected in primaries and caucuses — to shift their allegiance at the convention. All that delegates are required to do is to “in all good conscience” reflect the sentiments of the voters who chose them. For delegates with flexible consciences, the sky is theoretically the limit. “The press is wrong in exclusively focusing on the superdelegates,” says a member of the Democratic National Committee, who has closely studied the convention rulebook. “If it goes to the Convention, everybody’s up for grabs.”

In this scenario your correspondent’s money is firmly with the Clinton campaign. One doesn’t rise up through the scum that is Arkansas politics without winning knife fights.