Scenario for Liberal victory in the next election

This is a way it could happen.

The Liberals are now in a tight spot with Trump, and are virtually powerless to dismiss his concerns: marketing boards, intellectual property, cultural subsidies and car manufacturing. Something has to give in the Liberal trade negotiations.

Of the set  of policy goals and sacred cows, milk marketing boards are probably less important than cultural subsidies, because milk producers have votes but the Toronto film and television community of subsidy-suckers has the voice – Voice – to determine how the Liberals are perceived. They  also get a set of subsidies that is approximately $2.5 billion Canadian. (This is derived from a CRTC report called “Harnessing Change: The Future of Programming Distribution in Canada” at figure 31. This showed the percentage of Canadian GDP  spent on broadcasting and culture which was 0.16 % of 2016 GDP multiplied by the  Canadian GDP in 2016. (Sources : https://crtc.gc.ca/eng/publications/s15/ and https://countryeconomy.com/gdp/canada?year=2016. The more numerate may check my figures for their pleasure.)

Path to victory is as follows:

  • Buy out the value of all the quotas from Canadian agricultural producers at market prices. This will about $30 billion CAD (Reference: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/cost-of-ending-dairy-quotas-much-smaller-than-expected-study/article17123557/) Buying at market prices will enrich them and leave no ground for grumbling.
  • Keep the cultural subsidies, which the US does not care about as long as thy have access to our markets, which they do through Netflix and other on-line subscriptions. (Who cares if broadcast TV remains protected?)
  • Make sure the automotive plants are saved.
  • Cede ground on pharmaceuticals and intellectual property.

Then….

Poach Maxime Bernier for the Grits.

This would have several beneficial effects for the Liberals.

  • It would attract libertarian economic voters to the Liberals, where they used to be in the 19th century and up until MacKenzie-King)
  • frustrate and annoy Andrew Scheer and the Tories
  • Get rid of expensive subsidies for producers and endear the Liberals to  poorer Canadians for milk and richer Canadians who eat pricey cheeses, whose prices would now be halved (The Volvo-driving classes must have their Camembert).
  • Re-position the Liberals as the party of the people.  ( This takes some holding of noses on their part, because they cannot stand the people who actually constitute Canada)

This scheme is so Machiavellian it will immediately commend itself to them. You are welcome, Grits.

 

 

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canadianna

Looks like Quebec is going to fight the Libs on SM if they try to dismantle it, but it also appears as though some simple concessions might be enough and it’ll just stay intact.

As for Maxime… he would not do well in a totalitarian party, even if it started implementing some of his planks.

don morris

What makes you believe Maxime Bernier could be “poached” by the Liberal Party? The guy doesn’t fit well with the CPC leadership, he sure as hell wouldn’t be at home with the dictatorial Butts/Trudeau regime.
The LPC might be better to poach Andrew Scheer from the CPC, as he fits right into their system, make him Minister of the Environment and Deputy PM, and he just might go for it.

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