Climate change – getting colder

Last winter of 2013-2014 was persistent, long, unmelting, and relentless. It began on November 15th where I live with blowing snow and all the appearance of a blizzard. In recent times one could sometimes experience the period November 15th to December 15th without snow, which means, for those of you who do not live here, a month when no boots were required, where your shoes were actually sufficient. If it snows on November 15th then you have an added month of winter, which you never get back by an earlier spring.

Do you know why our shoes last so long?  Because for five months a year we are in winter boots!

November 15th to April 15th  is five full months.The snow was so deep farmers could not get into their maple sugar bushes for the first weeks of the sap run.

When it thawed, the snow turns into a raging torrent in every stream, but the many broken tops of trees can block the streams, slowing the water, filling the channels with gravel, and sending water out of the stream bed across the land in new paths. One of the challenges this past weekend was to get the stream back into its bed, which involves chainsaws and shovels. A good activity in the cold rain, because it is way too early to garden.

This past weekend the temperature has varied from +2c to 10C. It looks here like winter in Missouri, I imagine. Brown grass, a touch of green here and there, and a few brave spikes of green flowers emerging from cold ground.

I guess the last huge piles of shovelled snow melted about a week or two ago, though you can still see in parking lots some scattered remnants of ice, the pathetic left-overs of immense snow hills where large machines push the stuff to keep the rest of the parking lot open. A picture taken in March shows the snow beside our driveway nearly as high as my wife.

The amazing aspect of all this persistent cold across northern North America is that it has not slowed, stopped or reduced, so far as I can tell, any of the relentless drivel about global warming. Yes, I am aware that weather is not climate, and one bad winter does not global cooling make. Nevertheless, one wonders when any evidence whatever will start to sink in.

Some Protestant fundamentalists cannot accept the evolution of species. No amount of evidence seems sufficient to disturb their faith that the world was created some thousands of years ago by direct divine fiat. Likewise, the warmists are engaged in elaborate theories of what kind of vast psychosis is required to deny man-made global warming.

I look out my window on the brown grass, with hues of green emerging, and ask: when will it get warmer? And will any evidence by enough to cause them to question what is their essentially religious faith?

You cannot reason a man out of a position that was never reasoned in the first place.

 

ages of climate

 

 

 

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lenny

In fact, this past winter was anomalously warm – the 7th warmest on record, regardless of whatever you experienced in your corner in the world.

Regarding your graph:

Is this part of a published paper?
What data is it derived from?
Where is the Y axis?
Who are Cliff Harris and Randy Mann?

I am sure that being a “skeptic” you already answered these questions for yourself before using the graph.

oldwhiteguy

computer models are useless when it comes to predicting what the weather or climate will do. so far wrong is the only word that can be used to describe what has occurred.

Dalwhinnie

Since weather records only start with some Quaker in the Midlands of England in the 1820s, I doubt whether our records tell us much about long term centuries-long trends. The seventh warmest winter where? in how long? I am sure you did original research to come up with that one, no?

I am writing a blog, not a peer-reviewed science magazine. The data presented there is consistent with Brian Fagan’s “The Long Summer” and “The Little Ice Age”, which I recommend heartily. I would say that Fagan buys into anthropogenic global warming, a bit.

And I am sure that nothing I say will have the remotest tendency to disturb the tranquility of your fervent warmism.

lenny

“On record” meaning the instrumental temperature record. It was the 7th warmest winter in the 123 years of that record, which puts it in warmest 6% of winters over that period. And that tells us a hell of a lot more about trends than your description of winter in one small corner of the world.
So you don’t know anything about the creator of the chart or the source of the data. It simply agreed with your preconceived notions, and being a “skeptic” you cut and pasted it.

oldwhiteguy

there has been no warming for over 17 years now. it has been predicted, not with computer models, that the average temp will drop by 1.5c by 2030. I won’t be around to see it but climate change is something man has no control over.

Mawell Wolf

Forget the “7th warmest winter”. Try this for size.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/legacy/paulhudson/2011/01/december-2010-update-second-co.shtml

Met Office provisional figures show that December 2010 with a mean CET temperature of -0.7C was the second coldest since records began in 1659, beaten only by December 1890 which had a mean of -0.8C.

The diagram below shows how the month ranks with other cold Decembers, a truly memorable month climatologically.

(diagram at above website)

December 2010 was also easily the coldest December based on CET minimum temperature data which started in 1878.

December was Leeming’s coldest month since records began in 1945. The mean was -1.75C compared to the previous coldest month of February 1963 with a recorded mean of -1.4C.

December 2010 was also a new record for minimum temperatures at Leeming for any month since records began in 1945, with a mean minimum temperature of -5.3C, illustrated below with comparison to the winter months of 1962/1963 – which turned out to be the coldest winter of the last century.

(diagram at above website)

lenny

A month in the UK(<1% of the earth's surface) in 2010 was really cold…and your point is?
In fact Dec, 2010 was warmer than any December in the instrumental record prior to 1997, and that winter along with that of 2002 are the 3rd warmest on record.

Maxwell Wolf

> In fact Dec, 2010 was warmer than any December in the instrumental record prior to 1997

Where? Who measured it?

Dalwhinnie

I went to the explanation page for the chart and found this:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

which led me to James Hansen’s explanation of what is found at
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2014/20140121_Temperature2013.pdf

Hansen et alia write:
Global surface temperature in 2013 was + 0. 6 °C ( ~ 1 .1 °F) warmer than the 1951 – 1980 base period average , thus the seventh warmest year in the GISS analysis . The rate of global warming is slower in the past decade than in the prior three decades. Slower growth of net climate forcings and cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean both contribute to the slower warming rate, with the latter probably the more important effect. The tropical Pacific cooling is probably unforced variability, at least in large part.
The trend toward an increased frequency of extreme hot summer
anomalies over land areas has continued despite the Pacific Ocean cooling
The “bell curves” for observed temperature anomalies show that, because of larger unforced variability in winter , it is more difficult in winter than in summer to recognize the effect of global warming on the
occurrence of extreme warm or cold seasons. It appears that there is substantial likelihood of an El Niño beginning in 2014, and as a result a
probable record global temperature in 2014 or 2015. ”

It seems to me this is very careful language to explain away some unpleasant findings from the perspective of anthropogenic global warming.

1) Heating is not occurring as fast as the catastrophists have predicted.
2) “Unforced” variability in winter is code for colder winters.
3) the global warming Hansen insists is occurring is more difficult to recognize.

Hansen is a major propagandist for AGW.

This from his wikipedia entry:

James Edward Hansen (born March 29, 1941) is an American adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Hansen is best known for his research in the field of climatology, his testimony on climate change to congressional committees in 1988 that helped raise broad awareness of global warming, and his advocacy of action to avoid dangerous climate change. In recent years, Hansen has become an activist for action to mitigate the effects of climate change, which on a few occasions has led to his arrest.

lenny

“Heating is not occurring as fast as the catastrophists have predicted.”

I have no idea. But it is proceeding at roughly the rate projected by the IPCC.

” “Unforced” variability in winter is code for colder winters.”

Why would that be? There haven’t been colder winters.

” the global warming Hansen insists is occurring is more difficult to recognize.”
Without glasses, maybe.
http://static.berkeleyearth.org/graphics/figure9.pdf

Maxwell Wolf

“There haven’t been colder winters.”

and in other news today…

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20140430/us-economy-gdp-09b1567225.html

The U.S. economy slowed drastically in the first three months of the year as a harsh winter exacted a toll on business activity. The slowdown, while worse than expected, is likely to be temporary as growth rebounds with warmer weather.
——————————
Lenny, put your month where your mouth is. Buy up cheap land in the north. If global warming arrives as you predict then you will become very rich.

lenny

Yes, parts of the US and Canada had a cold winter. That doesn’t change the simple fact that the world had a warm winter.
You don’t seem to understand the fact that the approx. 2% of the earth’s surface you’re referring to isn’t representative of the other 98%.

Maxwell Wolf

Put your money where you mouth is and buy up the land in north. I suggest you look at placement of some of the temperature sensors before you go all in.

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