Barrel Strength

Stephen Taylor makes the best argument I have seen so far on the significance of ending a mandatory long-form census (LFC).

“The conservative/libertarian Fraser Institute think tank’s motto is “if it matters, measure it.” The untruth of the inverse of this statement is at the centre of why this government should follow through. “If you measure it, it matters” is the motto of those net tax-receiving organizations who only matter if they can make their case. Prime Minister Stephen Harper has tried the ideological argument against these groups for years. But ideology is by its nature debatable; removing the framework of debate is his shortcut to victory.

“If Stephen Harper succeeds in moving in this direction, he will be in the initial stages of dealing a huge blow to the welfare state. If one day we have no idea how many divorced Hindu public transit users there are in East Vancouver, government policy will not be concocted to address them specifically. Indeed if this group were organized (the DHPTUEV?) and looking for government intervention, they’d be against the census change. The trouble is that in Canada, the non-affiliated taxpayers not looking for a handout have not organized. Indeed, the only dog they have in this fight is the amount of tax they pay (aka “transfers”) to sustain the interests of others.”

This argument appeals to me profoundly. It elicits every aspect of my resentment at the growth of the snivelling whiner state of the last fifty years. It appeals to my strong belief that this country should have more aircraft carriers than human rights commissions. Fuck the bedwetters and the industries of concern! Disestablish the political parties and make them run on citizen contributions! Yay us! Boo them!

Taylor continues:

The other recent Lockheed Martin-related news story of the past couple of weeks was the Conservative government’s huge sole-sourced $16-billion contract with Lockheed Martin to buy F-35 fighter jets. Perhaps I was a bit naive to think that every part of that sentence should be offensive to the Ottawa media… sole-sourced… American arms dealer… flying war machines… Conservative government. No, this largest military purchase in Canadian history didn’t even make a significant blip on the Ottawa establishment radar, simply because it didn’t challenge the position of any special interest groups. There’s no bevy of community/cultural/government organizations ready to line up to criticize/laud such a move. If the government had taken $16-billion out of HRSDC’s $80+ billion annual budget to pay for it, however, there’d be a swarm.

Yes, this is the political miracle of this summer. Why is anyone sensible upset that the government may be destroying the basis of rational policy when they are feeding us the red meat of conservatism? Beautiful fighter bombers! And we already have the Leopard 2A6 models in Afghanistan, so we do not need to ask for more tanks. And supply ships for the navy! Hip hip hooray! Doing everything right for the military is the best change the Conservatives bring to government.

So why concern oneself with the mandatory nature of the long-form census?

Because accurate measurement of what needs to be fixed or ignored is at stake. Right wing or left wing, everyone has a stake in a statistically  informed government. As Ivan Fellegi pointed out, do you want to continue to allow tens of thousands to immigrate when every generation of our multi-culti immigrants is doing less well then their previous generations of more European-sourced immigrants? How do you know this for a fact? Statistics. Do you want to build many more prisons for a population whose crimes rates are declining? I may or may not have a problem with that, depending on the facts. But what are the facts? This is one of those many matters of state where ignorance is not strength.

It pays to reconnoitre. In fact, you can never have too much reconnaissance. When reading Reinhard Gehlen’s discussion of Germany’s invasion of the Soviet Union, my takeway was that the Germans utterly failed to factor into their invasion plans just how many million men of military age the Soviet Union had. So when in the winter of 1941, and again in the summer of 1942, the Germans were hit with something like 200 divisions’ worth of Soviet army morre than they had calculated could exist, they were utterly surprised. The Soviets had men to throw away, which they did with utter disregard for life. They could afford to. The Germans lost three times fewer men on the eastern front than the Russians and still lost the war against the Soviets. Have you ever heard of the losing army losing three times fewer men than the winning army?

Just because you do believe the Titanic is unsinkable does not mean that icebergs do not lie in its path. A more cautious approach to facts is the sign of a wise physician. In so confused and ignorant arena as politics, the measurement of what can be readily measured strikes me as a sound and efficient step. And if the questions are too intrusive, lessen or change them. But do not, I repeat, make the LFC year over year incomparable because the sample is not random.

Ignorance is not strength.