US Health Care Bill
March 22, 2010 American Politics, Economics and Finance 2 CommentsBy Arran Gold
A few random thoughts from your correspondent regarding the passage of the bill.
No, the passage wasn’t a surprise and had been predicted by intrade.com for some time.
Yes, it is a momentous occasion for liberals who have finally achieved their long cherished goal of government controlled health care.
Yes, life continues to be sweet for Obama. The passage of this bill will cement a legacy for him even though it was Pelosi who did most of the work, but then that has been the case for Obama all his life.
Yes, Steyn and Frum are right when he says that winning back legislative majorities is a consolation prize and unlikely to lead to rollback of this bill. Even the Great Communicator couldn’t roll back two new cabinet-level departments, the Department of Energy and the Department of Education, implemented by Carter. Who exactly will lead the charge in rolling back this bill as has been suggested here and here?
Yes, things could still be derailed with state challenges and contentious issues in Senate, but it is unlikely.
Yes, reconciliation, talk of deem and pass and single party vote this will lead to a more divisive and poisoned political arena, similar to the rejection of Robert Bork’s Supreme Court nomination, which led to “Bork” becoming a verb.
What does the road ahead look like? In the opinion of your correspondent – grim. Even before the passage of this bill, US was facing fiscal pressure from increasing deficits that Obama has undertaken as per the chart below.

This has caused, and will continue to cause, a decline in the US rating which will lead to US devoting ever larger portion of the budget to service the debt. Today Bloomberg reported the following.
The bond market is saying that it’s safer to lend to Warren Buffett than Barack Obama.
Two-year notes sold by the billionaire’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. in February yield 3.5 basis points less than Treasuries of similar maturity, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Procter & Gamble Co., Johnson & Johnson and Lowe’s Cos. debt also traded at lower yields in recent weeks, a situation former Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. chief fixed-income strategist Jack Malvey calls an “exceedingly rare” event in the history of the bond market.
This event might be “exceedingly rare” now but when put in context with the graph below, it won’t be.

Neither one of the above graphs address the cost associated with this bill or Social Security. The Social Security program is projected to be in deficit by 2016, “notably that Social Security payroll tax collections would begin to exceed benefits paid in 2016, a year shorter than had been forecasted in 2008.” It seems the bill for the party will come due by the end of the decade, long after Obama is gone and is modeling for a place on Mt. Rushmore.

