The Evil Futurists’ Guide to World Domination
July 16, 2009 8:29 am Ecology, Economics and FinanceAlex Pang presents an incisive critique of futurist bluffers, and you will find his “tips” manifested throughout our chattering classes, whether it’s crypto-nationalizing the economy or serving up climate change you must believe in:
No expertise, no problem! It’ll actually make your work more accurate if you claim to be an expert– if you’re certain that you’re an expert– but you actually aren’t.
Sounds counterintuitive, right? (This is how you know I’m a successful futurist. I said what you didn’t expect. Now I’ll quote some Science to make my point.) In fact, advanced degrees and deep knowledge don’t make you a better forecaster. Statistically, experts are hardly better at predicting the future than chimps throwing darts at a board.
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Glendronach
