Barrel Strength

Those who have seen the recent polls favouring the Conservatives and who are surprised should read this. Those who are not surprised will find confirmation of their beliefs here.

I am going to take the risk of saying something I believe to be true.

There is a dangerous streak of anger in English Canada, as well as a beleaguered patriotism, that can be mobilized in an instant against the separatists, which normally is kept locked in a freezer deep in the basement. It is really dangerous to bring it out, and events, not Harper, brought it out this time. It will be put back in the freezer until events summon it forth again.

The tensions of sustaining civil relations to a party that just wants to take and not give is slightly comparable to the tensions in the US before the Civil War, though far less likely to explode in this country, because the underlying sentiments of separatists and English Canadians have been adjusted to each other more successfully (so far) through federalism, and English Canada recognizes that if Quebec wants to go, nothing will stop it and no one needs to stop it. Quebec’s formal separation will be the moment when its political class, as well as its people, will have to start to pay the freight for Quebec’s economic and social policies. A sudden onrush of realism will overtake the province’s politics when that happens.

There is no cause worth dying for to keep French Canada attached if they really want to leave. But don’t leave with the family property, most Canadians would add. Also I would say that over the course of my lifetime, the proportion of English Canadians who believe we are only different from the States because of Quebec is diminishing, and that the bonds of affection between French and English Canada, real though they are, are diminishing over time as we have less to do with one another.

In essence I am saying that two forces converged in the opposition to the Liberal-NDP parliamentary coup, one an opposition to the parliamentary tactics to take over government without an election, and the other a rage against the Bloc and all its stands for.

I make no estimate of their relative importance, except to say that they are both at play in the current situation.

This, for what it is worth, is my analysis. It suggests that Prime Minister Harper has tapped into the monster in the basement, and notwithstanding the tremors of the commentariat, and the real risks of national fragmentation, he will ride this to majority government.