Barrel Strength

This is an exchange today between Oban and Dalwhinnie by email.

Oban:

Canada

 Obviously Stephane Dion is toast, so the next year will be spent selecting a new Liberal leader.

The real lesson of the election is that Moses cannot take the Israelites to the promised land.  Harper has now had three electoral opportunities to provide a Conservative majority.  He cannot deliver, and the failure to gain in Quebec means that he will never breakthrough there.  I think he has completed his mission.  He rebuilt the Canadian right, created a somewhat unified party, and even made it somewhat respectable.  However, his day is now over.  The next liberal leader will beat him to a pulp, take seats from the BQ, and put a Conservative majority out of reach for a decade to come.  Harper should wait until the Liberals have selected their new leader and then step aside to make room for a leader who may be able to connect with voters in a way that he simply cannot, and that remains the biggest liability for the Conservative Party.

USA:

It’s never over till its over, but I see the fat lady warming up in the wings.

Last night’s was the first debate I was able to watch.  Obama is not perfect, but he is a near perfect candidate, and John McCain is not.  Also, John McCain has, I am sorry to say, acted dishonourably as well as petulantly as regards the kinds of attacks he chose to make on Obama, the choice of Palin, and the fundamental cynicism of his approach to the American public.

Last spring, when we were down to McCain, Clinton and Obama, I said any country would be lucky to have any of the above as President.  I eat my words.  The campaign McCain has fought since August has diminished him, and it is sad to see.  In the last analysis, he is revealed as a tired old man, out of ideas, who desparately wants to be President, but doesn’t display a “presidential” temperment.

The Kenyan may have a lot to learn, but one gets the feeling he learns fast, is far from doctrinaire (although is of the left of centre), is capable of listening to many kinds of advice, and will reflect before acting.

So, subject of a horrendous October surprise (and to some extent the economic crisis is that, and it is Obama who has looked surer, more deft, and more effective than McCain)it’s hard to see McCain squeaking past the post in this race.  The Republicans, like Canada’s Liberals, need time in opposition to think and reflect.  It hasn’t done so.  McCain is the last shot of the Republicans to retain the WhiteHouse by pure tactical exercise rather than by developing and enunciating policies that have relevance to the lives of most people.

So.  There you have it.

No brilliant gossip I fear, but I can predict that I will be very busy over the next few months.

Your turn, Dalwhinnie.

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Dalwhinnie replies:

Well, I have had the opportunity to recover from my shock regarding your plans for Mr. Harper’s career, I find I have nothing to add except incredulity. I do not think this is going to happen, as a matter of factual prediction, and as a Conservative, I see no reason to replace him unless someone obviously better presents himself for the job. So as far as I am concerned, I consider myself to be dealing  with the domain of the real.

Further, I see no basis for your confidence that the next Liberal leader will eat Harper’s lunch. The  economic recession into which we are heading will strain everyone’s capacity to handle it, but the superiority of the next putative Liberal leader to handle the ongoing recession is not apparent, by definition.

So if you don’t mind, I will treat your perediction as an amusing jeu d’esprit  to get Dalwhinnie  off and running, which it did, in a way.

I also note that The Globe and Mail’s Lawrence Martin also has predicted Harper will be out before the next election, and Chantal Hebert was trying to persuade us that Harper had somehow lost by not winning enough. It may be that early predictions of the demise of Harper have become a test for detecting those who will never vote for him.
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Oban gets the last word:
The issue is not about the Liberals – it is about whether Harper can lead the Conservatives to a majority. I don’t see him being able to do so (based on the record of at least two reasonably winnable elections). Thus, he should go. To do otherwise is to put his destiny ahead of the party’s.

Oban